Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler homered to left center (405 feet), Berti scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Arraez singled to right, Cooper scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Smith singled to center, Candelario scored and Chavis scored, Call to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Candelario singled to right, García scored, Meneses to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Thomas homered to right (364 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Wendle grounded into fielder's choice to first, Segura scored on error and Burdick scored on fielding error by pitcher Gray, Fortes safe at second on error.0–2
- 2Wendle grounded into fielder's choice to first, Segura scored on error and Burdick scored on fielding error by pitcher Gray, Fortes safe at second on error.0–2
- 2Wendle grounded into fielder's choice to first, Segura scored on error and Burdick scored on fielding error by pitcher Gray, Fortes safe at second on error.0–2
- 2Wendle grounded into fielder's choice to first, Segura scored on error and Burdick scored on fielding error by pitcher Gray, Fortes safe at second on error.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +15 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.