Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley homered to right center (392 feet), Fairchild scored and Barrero scored.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Steer doubled to left, Fairchild scored and Fraley scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Burdick homered to left center (425 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (381 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Wendle scored.2–2
- 5Wendle scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Fraley homered to right center (399 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Stephenson homered to left (388 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −6 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 10–913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.