Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Hanser AlbertoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Friedl tripled to right, India scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Friedl homered to right center (369 feet), Casali scored and India scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Zavala homered to left (388 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Benintendi doubled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Grandal to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Alberto homered to left (362 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 1Steer singled to left, India scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- CHW +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.7 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +34 Elo | CIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 9–714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–0 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.