Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado singled to right, Grisham scored and Sullivan scored, Tatis Jr. to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Kim homered to left (353 feet), Bogaerts scored and Carpenter scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Grisham doubled to right, Kim scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Senzel homered to left center (394 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Fairchild doubled to left, Steer scored and Maile scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Soto doubled to center, Machado scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +16 Elo | SD 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 5–823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.