Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Luke MaileBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Jordan DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fraley doubled to right, Ramos scored and Newman scored, Senzel to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Maile homered to left (408 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2J. Diaz singled to center, Laureano scored, A. Díaz to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2A. Díaz reached on infield single to second, Pérez scored, Laureano to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 44%
- Fair odds
- OAK -101
- CIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 5.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +40 Elo | CIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 8.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −4.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 2–1129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.