Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CessaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RucinskiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to left (392 feet), Noda scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–5
- 9India singled to left, Senzel scored, Fairchild to third.11–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging10–5
- 9Ramos scored on Fujinami wild pitch, Fairchild to second on wild pitch by Fujinami, Senzel to third on wild pitch by Fujinami.10–5
- 9Ramos scored on Fujinami wild pitch, Fairchild to second on wild pitch by Fujinami, Senzel to third on wild pitch by Fujinami.10–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Stephenson reached on infield single to pitcher, India scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Noda homered to right center (427 feet), Ruiz scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Fairchild singled to left, Senzel scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Senzel doubled to left, Fraley scored and Stephenson scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Langeliers tripled to left, Noda scored and Rooker scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Fraley homered to center (419 feet), Steer scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Barrero doubled to left, Fairchild scored and Senzel scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 52%
- Fair odds
- OAK -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +2 | CIN: Luis Cessa: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OAK: Drew Rucinski (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +17 Elo | OAK 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 8.230th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −4.330th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 2–1029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.