Cincinnati Reds at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz singled to left, Peterson scored, Smith to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–4
- 7Rooker hit sacrifice fly to right, Peterson scored, Laureano to second, Ruiz to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Newman singled to right, Friedl scored and Senzel scored, Fraley to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Friedl reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramos scored on throwing error by pitcher Acevedo, Friedl to second, Senzel safe at third on error.2–3
- 6Friedl reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramos scored on throwing error by pitcher Acevedo, Friedl to second, Senzel safe at third on error.2–3
- 6Friedl reached on infield single to pitcher, Ramos scored on throwing error by pitcher Acevedo, Friedl to second, Senzel safe at third on error.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Rooker homered to left (411 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Senzel homered to left (373 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Aguilar homered to left center (428 feet), Rooker scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 46%
- Fair odds
- OAK -101
- CIN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.1 – 5.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +25 Elo | CIN 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 8.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −4.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 2–1229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.