Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Nick GordonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Louis VarlandPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Andrus grounded out to second, Hamilton scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Jiménez singled to left, Benintendi scored, Vaughn to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Anderson singled to right, Sheets scored, Andrus to second, Grandal thrown out at home.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Gordon homered to right (371 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Buxton doubled to center, Correa scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Correa doubled to left, Castro scored and Polanco scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Robert Jr. homered to center (420 feet), Anderson scored and Jiménez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -102
- MIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.0 – 5.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.