Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching2.2 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino singled to left, Bradley Jr. scored and Witt Jr. scored.4–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Bradley Jr. scored on error, Duffy safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Polanco.2–8
- 7Bradley Jr. scored on error, Duffy safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Polanco.2–8
- 7Bradley Jr. scored on error, Duffy safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Polanco.2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 6Olivares grounded out to third, Pasquantino scored, Perez to second.1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Vázquez singled to right, Gordon scored and Castro scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Castro singled to right, Gallo scored, Gordon to third.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Gordon singled to center, Larnach scored, Gallo to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Buxton homered to left (453 feet), Kepler scored and Correa scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Gordon sacrificed to pitcher, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -126
- KC +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +19 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +90 Elo | MIN 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.