Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olivares scored on Duran wild pitch, Massey to third on wild pitch by Duran.3–2
- 9Olivares scored on Duran wild pitch, Massey to third on wild pitch by Duran.3–2
- 8Perez singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Buxton homered to left (355 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Lopez singled to center, Olivares scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Buxton scored on Keller wild pitch, Jeffers to second on wild pitch by Keller, Miranda to third on wild pitch by Keller.0–1
- 4Buxton scored on Keller wild pitch, Jeffers to second on wild pitch by Keller, Miranda to third on wild pitch by Keller.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- KC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +57 Elo | MIN 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 9–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–5 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.