Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Correa homered to center (421 feet).1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 4Buxton homered to center (419 feet), Vázquez scored and Taylor scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pasquantino homered to right (419 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vázquez scored, Kepler out at second.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Kepler singled to center, Gallo scored, Vázquez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Larnach singled to right, Correa scored, Polanco to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +56 Elo | MIN 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–7 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.