Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.6–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Dozier scored, Massey out at second.5–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 6Pratto singled to left, Olivares scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Perez homered to center (416 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 5Miranda homered to left (363 feet).2–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Polanco homered to right (379 feet), Taylor scored and Kepler scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Taylor reached on bunt double to catcher, Gallo scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pratto singled to right, Olivares scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Kepler hit sacrifice fly to left, Miranda scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Taylor walked, Larnach scored, Gallo to second, Miranda to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 41–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–4 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.