Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Nick GordonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Benintendi singled to left, Alberto scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Gordon homered to center (414 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–2
- 7Jiménez homered to left center (375 feet), Vaughn scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Larnach hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- CHW +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.1 – 5.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 4–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.