Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Robert Jr. homered to center (418 feet), Jiménez scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5India homered to center (418 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Andrus homered to left (356 feet), Grandal scored and Alberto scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Senzel singled to left, Stephenson scored, Fraley to second.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Fraley singled to left, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Friedl doubled to right, Newman scored, Friedl out stretching at third.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 61%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +18 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +76 Elo | CIN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 9–611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.