Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CessaPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Padres- Brett SullivanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Soto doubled to right, Odor scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Grisham scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Steer homered to left (355 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Sullivan homered to right center (380 feet), Odor scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Sullivan doubled to right, Kim scored and Cronenworth scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Fair odds
- SD -117
- CIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +5 | CIN: Luis Cessa: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +60 Elo | SD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 6–923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–1 SD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.