Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-5
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10India singled to left, Reynolds scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Fraley singled to right, Friedl scored, Stephenson to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Soto doubled to right, Machado scored, Soto to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Fair odds
- SD -113
- CIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +1 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +12 Elo | SD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 SD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.