Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Jiménez singled to right, Hamilton scored.7–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 12Polanco singled to center, Gordon scored and Kepler scored, Correa to third.7–2
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 12Correa walked, Jeffers scored, Kepler to second, Gordon to third.5–2
- 12Pitch 8 : Ball 45–2
- 12Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 12Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 12Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 12Gordon doubled to center, Gallo scored, Jeffers to third.4–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 12Larnach scored on error, Miranda safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson.3–2
- 12Larnach scored on error, Miranda safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson.3–2
- 12Larnach scored on error, Miranda safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Anderson.3–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Buxton homered to left center (376 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Correa homered to left (377 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Jiménez homered to left center (409 feet), Zavala scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.0 – 5.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +11 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.