New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Steer homered to left center (427 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Newman singled to left, Senzel scored and Stephenson scored, Newman to second, Ramos to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Senzel doubled to right, Fraley scored, Stephenson to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Fraley singled to center, India scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −8 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Derek Law (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 11–911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.