New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Nimmo singled to right, Guillorme scored, Álvarez to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Alonso homered to left (374 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Fraley doubled to right, India scored, Fraley to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Fair odds
- CIN -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +24 Elo | CIN 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.