New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor homered to left center (414 feet), Nimmo scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Canha grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Baty scored, Vogelbach out at second, Marte to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Alonso homered to right (360 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Álvarez homered to left center (388 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5India hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 5Friedl tripled to center, Myers scored and Newman scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4India doubled to left, Maile scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Álvarez homered to center (386 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Senzel reached on infield single to shortstop, Friedl scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2India grounded out to third, Newman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −14 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +1 Elo | NYM 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.