Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Hanser AlbertoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching1.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Grandal grounded out to third, Robert Jr. scored, Alberto to third.17–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play17–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking16–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 216–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 116–4
- 5Alberto doubled to center, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to third.16–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play16–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul15–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 115–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul15–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul15–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul15–4
- 5Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to center, Anderson scored, Benintendi to third.15–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play15–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul14–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 214–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 114–4
- 4Myers homered to left center (371 feet).14–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging14–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking14–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 314–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 214–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 114–3
- 3Stephenson homered to right (357 feet).14–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul14–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 314–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging14–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 214–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 114–2
- 3Steer homered to left (386 feet).14–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–2
- 3Alberto doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–1
- 3Robert Jr. doubled to left, Vaughn scored.13–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play13–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 312–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Fair odds
- CIN -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.8 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +22 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +57 Elo | CIN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 10–710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.