New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark CanhaBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams singled to left, Garrett scored, Call to second.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Canha singled to center, Marte scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–1
- 5Baty scored on throwing error by catcher Adams, Marte stole third.7–1
- 5Marte stole second, Marte advanced to third and Baty scored on throwing error by catcher Adams.7–1
- 5Baty scored on throwing error by catcher Adams, Marte stole third.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 5Marte singled to center, Alonso scored and Lindor scored, Baty to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Baty walked, Nimmo scored, Alonso to second, Lindor to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 44–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Lindor reached on infield single to pitcher, Pham scored, Nimmo to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Nimmo singled to center, Canha scored, Pham to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Canha doubled to left, Marte scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +26 Elo | WSH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 7–1327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.