New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Michael PerezBatting4-4
- Stephen NogosekPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abrams homered to center (411 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Abrams singled to right, Candelario scored, Garrett to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to right, Vogelbach scored, Pérez to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Meneses singled to right, Thomas scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- NYM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −10 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +34 Elo | WSH 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 6–1327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.