New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor singled to center, Baty scored, Canha scored and Nimmo scored, Lindor to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Call scored on error, Alu safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Alu safe at second on error.0–2
- 4Call scored on error, Alu safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Alu safe at second on error.0–2
- 4Call scored on error, Alu safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Alu safe at second on error.0–2
- 4Call scored on error, Alu safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Alu safe at second on error.0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Meneses singled to right, García scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +13 Elo | WSH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 6–1227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.