New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo grounded out to second, McNeil scored, Álvarez to second, Escobar to third.3–10
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Meneses doubled to right, García scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Candelario scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Meneses reached on infield single to pitcher, Thomas scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Abrams homered to right (404 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 5Smith singled to right, Ruiz scored, Smith thrown out at second, Candelario to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4García singled to left, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Thomas walked. Smith scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Abrams stole second.1–4
- 4Smith scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Abrams stole second.1–4
- 4Smith scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Abrams stole second.1–4
- 4Smith scored on throwing error by catcher Álvarez, Abrams stole second.1–4
- 3Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Meneses doubled to left, Thomas scored, García to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −5 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +15 Elo | WSH 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 7–1427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.