Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Levi StoudtPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arraez doubled to right, Soler scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Fairchild singled to center, Myers scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Ramos doubled to left, Fraley scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Fraley singled to right, India scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Burdick singled to left, Soler scored, De La Cruz thrown out at third.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to left center (391 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6De La Cruz homered to left (405 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Fraley homered to right (395 feet), Barrero scored and Casali scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Gurriel singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Segura to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | CIN: Derek Law: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +3 Elo | CIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.