Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting2-4
- Luke WeaverPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Cooper scored, Soler to second, Arraez to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Cooper doubled to center, Hampson scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Segura singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Stephenson grounded out to first, India scored, Steer to second, Senzel to third.1–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −5 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +20 Elo | MIA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 10–1118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.