Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt StrahmPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores singled to left, Estrada scored and Wade Jr. scored, Conforto to second.4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Estrada singled to center, Haniger scored, Wade Jr. to second, Bart to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Stott homered to right (376 feet).4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored, Realmuto to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored and Castellanos scored, Schwarber to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Crawford singled to left, Schmitt scored, Sabol to second.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Sabol singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Schmitt to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Schmitt singled to right, Flores scored and Wade Jr. scored, Yastrzemski to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +3 Elo | SF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.