Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Corey DickersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Call grounded out to shortstop, Dickerson scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6De La Cruz doubled to right, Soler scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Soler homered to center (407 feet), Arraez scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Dickerson homered to right center (432 feet), Candelario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −5 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.