Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Burdick to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Dickerson reached on infield single to third, Thomas scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Candelario doubled to right, García scored, Thomas to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Cooper singled to center, Fortes scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Edwards singled to right, Wendle scored, Burdick to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Candelario homered to center (443 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Segura singled to right, Edwards scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2De La Cruz homered to center (402 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +9 Elo | MIA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 13–1114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.