San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting3-4
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman homered to right center (369 feet).11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pinto hit sacrifice fly to center, Shenton scored.10–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 310–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 7Estrada homered to left (403 feet), Chapman scored.10–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Soler homered to center (446 feet).8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 6Bailey hit a ground rule double, Estrada scored, Yastrzemski to third.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Yastrzemski singled to right, Chapman scored and Conforto scored, Estrada to second.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Wade Jr. homered to right center (391 feet), Lee scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Estrada homered to left (397 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML SF -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- TB: Elo 59.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +65 Elo | TB 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 4–49th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.