Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting2-3
- Ross StriplingPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wade Jr. walked, Sabol scored, Camargo to second, Estrada to third.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 46–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Raley homered to right center (425 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Paredes singled to left, Arozarena scored on fielding error by left fielder Ramos, Paredes to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5B. Lowe homered to center (421 feet), Díaz scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4J. Lowe homered to center (430 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Paredes singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Arozarena to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 35–279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.