Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris StrattonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos homered to center (423 feet).9–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 39–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Garver singled to right, Seager scored and Lowe scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9Seager singled to right, Semien scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Duran singled to left, García scored, Garver to second.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Martinez hit sacrifice fly to center, Seager scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Conforto homered to right (365 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Taveras singled to right, Garver scored, J. Smith to second, Martinez to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Garver singled to center, Lowe scored, García to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Bailey singled to left, Flores scored, Bailey to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +20 Elo | TEX 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 33–259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.