Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Travis JankowskiBatting1-3
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy TarnokPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gelof homered to left center (409 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bride hit sacrifice fly to left, Ruiz scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 66%
- Fair odds
- TEX -127
- OAK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Austin Pruitt: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +119 Elo | TEX 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 17–4130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 7–2 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.