Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras tripled to left, Jankowski scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Seager homered to center (400 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Bleday homered to center (420 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Seager doubled to center, Semien scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Semien reached on infield single to shortstop, Huff scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Huff doubled to left, Grossman scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Duran singled to center, Grossman scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 66%
- Fair odds
- TEX -126
- OAK +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +117 Elo | TEX 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 17–4030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 6–2 OAK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.