Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Amed RosarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández singled to center, Outman scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 6Heyward homered to center (406 feet).1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 3Rojas homered to left center (383 feet).1–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 3Langeliers homered to left center (392 feet).1–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Rosario homered to right center (373 feet), Smith scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Smith doubled to center, Freeman scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Betts homered to left center (436 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Outman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Smith scored, Taylor out at second, Muncy to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Fair odds
- LAD -151
- OAK +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −3 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +138 Elo | LAD 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–39 | Road vs home | 32–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.