Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman singled to center, Betts scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Outman walked, Freeman scored, Taylor to second, Rosario to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 43–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Betts homered to left center (394 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7J. Diaz homered to right center (407 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Rooker homered to center (406 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Gelof homered to left (364 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Hernández doubled to left, Muncy scored, Outman scored and Taylor scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Outman hit by pitch, Freeman scored, Taylor to second, Muncy to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -144
- OAK +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −23 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +96 Elo | LAD 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–38 | Road vs home | 31–204th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.