Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Whit MerrifieldBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette singled to left, Biggio scored and Merrifield scored, Springer thrown out at third.8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 6Outman singled to left, Taylor scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Jansen homered to left (382 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Merrifield homered to left center (399 feet), Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Belt singled to right, Biggio scored, Bichette to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Merrifield sacrificed into double play, center to first to third, Guerrero Jr. scored, Chapman thrown out at third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- TOR +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.0 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +33 Elo | LAD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 30–172nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.