Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio singled to center, Chapman scored, Merrifield to third.8–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 7Hernández doubled to left, Rodríguez scored and Crawford scored.7–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 7Crawford doubled to right, Moore scored and Wong scored.7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Wong singled to right, France scored, Moore to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Kirk singled to right, Varsho scored on fielding error by right fielder Hernández, Kirk to second.7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Varsho singled to center, Belt scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Raleigh homered to center (405 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (387 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Belt homered to center (406 feet), Springer scored.4–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 28–2414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.