San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4
- Alek ManoahPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 9Cronenworth doubled to left, Soto scored, Machado to third.8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Grisham homered to right center (385 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Sánchez homered to left center (390 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Machado homered to left center (386 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to left, Soto scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Soto doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Chapman singled to center, Springer scored, Bichette to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Soto homered to left center (383 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- SD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −17 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +11 Elo | TOR 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 26–188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.