San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to left, Sosa scored.6–7
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 10Harper singled to center, Rojas scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Soto hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to left, Kim scored and Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Ellis walked, Realmuto scored, Marsh to second, Stott to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 43–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored and Turner scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Schwarber homered to right (400 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Stott homered to right center (393 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- SD +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 24–177th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.