San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner singled to left, Harper scored, Schwarber to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Schwarber singled to center, Marsh scored, Harper to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Harper reached on infield single to shortstop, Stott scored, Marsh to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Machado homered to left (425 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Schwarber homered to center (440 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Marsh doubled to left, Stott scored and Bohm scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Grisham homered to right center (385 feet), Sánchez scored and Batten scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- SD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3019–24 | Road vs home | 22–178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.