Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pache homered to center (397 feet), Bohm scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 9Bohm doubled to left, Realmuto scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Realmuto homered to left (372 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Cooper homered to right (367 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Myers grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Wendle scored, Stallings out at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Stallings reached on infield single to shortstop, Segura scored, Wendle to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 28–174th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.