St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wendle grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Hampson scored and Gurriel scored on throwing error by pitcher Hicks, Wendle second.9–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–8
- 9Walker homered to left center (444 feet), Contreras scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Contreras singled to right, Arenado scored.7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 6Cooper singled to right, De La Cruz scored.6–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 6De La Cruz doubled to left, Soler scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 4Goldschmidt grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Carlson scored, Donovan out at second.6–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 3Stallings homered to left (388 feet).5–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 3Gorman homered to center (407 feet), Contreras scored.5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Arenado scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Arenado doubled to center, Nootbaar scored and Goldschmidt scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Segura walked, Soler scored, Gurriel to second, Cooper to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 40–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −22 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +26 Elo | MIA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 27–163rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.