St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Yuli GurrielBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fortes singled to right, Berti scored, Fortes thrown out at second.4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Gurriel doubled to right, Segura scored and Cooper scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Arenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Nootbaar scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6DeJong doubled to right, Contreras scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Contreras homered to left (383 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Nootbaar singled to center, Baker scored, Carlson to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Sánchez doubled to left, Soler scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1De La Cruz grounded out to second, Arraez scored, Soler to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -122
- STL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +39 Elo | MIA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 25–164th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.