Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Abreu homered to center (416 feet), Tucker scored.10–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 8Altuve homered to left (388 feet), Madris scored and Meyers scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Donovan homered to right center (416 feet).5–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 35–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Maldonado doubled to center, Meyers scored and Madris scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 4Goldschmidt singled to left, Burleson scored, Donovan to second, Carlson to third.3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Goldschmidt homered to left center (443 feet).3–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 1Burleson doubled to right, Gorman scored.3–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1Arenado homered to left (374 feet), Donovan scored and Nootbaar scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- HOU +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +14 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 14–2127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.