Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Deluca scored on a balk, Outman to third on a balk.7–8
- 8Deluca scored on a balk, Outman to third on a balk.7–8
- 8Outman hit a ground rule double, Smith scored, Deluca to third.7–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 8Heyward hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored, Smith to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Peralta homered to right (401 feet), Heyward scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6J. Abreu hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Diaz singled to center, Tucker scored, J. Abreu to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Bregman homered to left (369 feet), Julks scored, Meyers scored and Altuve scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Altuve singled to right, Meyers scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Heyward homered to right center (380 feet), Martinez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −7 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +32 Elo | LAD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.64th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 23–143rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.