New York Mets at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching2.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Maldonado sacrificed, Julks scored, Peña to third.8–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 6Alonso homered to center (432 feet), Lindor scored.8–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 4Diaz homered to left center (386 feet), Bregman scored.6–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 4Bregman singled to right, Dubón scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 4Vogelbach singled to center, Lindor scored and Marte scored, McNeil to third.6–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 3McCormick homered to right center (390 feet), Julks scored.4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Julks singled to center, Tucker scored and Bregman scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Vogelbach doubled to right, Pham scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Lindor hit sacrifice fly to right, Nimmo scored, Marte to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- NYM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–24 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.