Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4
- J.P. FrancePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña grounded out to shortstop, J. Abreu scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Newman doubled to left, Benson scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 7Stephenson homered to left (357 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 20–1510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.