Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Luke MaileBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Dylan CarlsonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado homered to left (387 feet).8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 9Stephenson singled to right, India scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Carlson homered to right (376 feet), Baker scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Goldschmidt doubled to center, Edman scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 7Steer doubled to center, De La Cruz scored and India scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Steer hit sacrifice fly to center, India scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored, India to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Maile doubled to left, Fairchild scored, Stephenson scored and Benson scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -111
- CIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +18 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +30 Elo | STL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 13–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.